川西高原6—7月最低气温场重建研究  

Reconstruction of Minimum Temperature Field in June-July During 1787-2005 in the West Sichuan Plateau

作　　者：喻树龙[1] 袁玉江[1] 魏文寿[1] 尚华明[1] 张同文[1] 陈峰[1] 张瑞波[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所/新疆树木年轮生态实验室/中国气象局树轮年轮理化研究重点开放实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《中国沙漠》2012年第4期1010-1016,共7页Journal of Desert Research

基　　金：科技部公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200806011;GYHY201106013);国家自然科学基金项目(40975056;41071072);国家重点基础研究发展计划"973"项目(2010CB951001);新疆维吾尔自治区树木年轮生态重点实验室开放课题项目(XJYS0911-2009-01);新疆气象局科学技术研究与应用技术开发项目共同资助

摘　　要：经过单相关普查,选择川西高原甘孜、阿坝两州的14个树木年轮宽度年表和14个气象站的1961—2005年6—7月最低气温资料分别建立树轮宽度场和最低气温场。计算树轮宽度场和最低气温场的典型相关系数,发现两个场的第一特征向量和第三特征向量有较好的相关性。利用多元线性回归模型分别重建14个地点的1787—2005年6—7月最低气温序列和川西地区平均气温序列,重建6—7月最低气温场。分析最低气温重建场发现,第一特征向量能较好地反映川西地区的冷暖变化。在近两个世纪里,川西地区最低气温场第一特征向量的方差贡献率在增加,而最低气温场的收敛速度在减慢。Single correlation coefficients between tree ring width chronologies and minimum temperature data from 14 weather stations at the west Sichuan plateau were calculated,and the 14 tree-ring width chronologies and minimum temperature series in June-July during 1961-2005 were selected to build tree-ring width field and minimum temperature field in the area.Calculation of typical correlation coefficients between tree-ring width field and minimum temperature field showed the first eigenvector and third eigenvector of the two fields were significantly correlative.The minimum temperature sequences in June-July during 1787-2005 of the 14 stations and a regional average minimum temperature series were reconstructed using Multiple Linear Regression Model.Analysis of reconstructed minimum temperature field during 1787-2005 showed the first eigenvector of the field responded well to warm/cold change periods in west Sichuan,and variance contribution of the first eigenvector of the field was enhanced in past two centuries,and convergence rate of the field decreased.

关 键 词：川西高原 最低气温 树木年轮 气温场 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]