逐步引进因子场作相似预报  

Similar Forecast with Step by Step Recommonding Factor Field

作　　者：张延亭[1] 单九生[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西省气象台,南昌330046

出　　处：《气象》2000年第3期22-27,共6页Meteorological Monthly

摘　　要：首先通过数学模型计算出不同样本之间的气象因子场的相似系数和表征气象因子场与天气现象之间关系的相关特征量 ,然后用相似系数和相关特征量作参数 ,以预报拟合率为判据 ,逐个引进因子场 ,组建出最优相似预报方程 ,最终作出准确率较高的客观要素预报。The similar coefficient of meteorological factors between respective samples was calculated,and the correlated characteristic variables representing the relationship between the meteorological factors field and weather phenomena were given through a mathematical model.Using these results as the coefficient parameters,the optimal equation for similar forecast by introducting factors one by one according to fitting rate of forecast was established.An accurate and objective forecast of various elements for all counties was made.

关 键 词：因子场 相关特征量 相似系数 相似预报 天气预报 

分 类 号：P456.9[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]