地面形势识别在上海强对流预报中的应用  

An Application of the Surface Synoptic System Recognition with Computer to the Severe Convection Prediction in Shanghai

作　　者：蒋乐贻[1] 黄炎[1] 姚祖庆[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海台风研究所,200030 [2]上海中心气象台

出　　处：《气象》2000年第3期28-32,共5页Meteorological Monthly

摘　　要：介绍用完全预报法建立的上海强对流展望预报系统 ,用计算机识别数值预报产品地面天气形势 ,进行预报的消空和解决起报问题 ,提高预报的准确率。在实际业务使用中证明该系统有一定预报能力。A prediction system of severe convection in Shanghai with perfect prediction was recommended.The initial conditions of prediction were based on surface synoptic system of numerical prediction fields recognized with computer,therefore the prediction accuracy was improved.In 1999,the operational experiments were carried out.The results show that the method is capable of forecasting severe convection in Shanghai.

关 键 词：地面形势 强对流 计算机识别 对流预报 

分 类 号：P457.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]