登陆辽宁热带气旋特征统计分析  

Analysis of tropical cyclone landing in Liaoning province

作　　者：陈传雷[1] 王江山 蒋大凯[1] 李玉鸣[1] 卢娟 张宁娜[1] 谭世君 乔小湜[1] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳中心气象台,辽宁沈阳110016 [2]辽宁省气象局,辽宁沈阳110000

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2012年第3期1-7,共7页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：中国气象局预报员专项项目(CMAYBY2011-007);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006006-08);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY20090611);辽宁省气象局2010年科研课题"辽宁省分县气象要素短时预报业务系统建设"共同资助

摘　　要：根据1949—2010年热带气旋年鉴资料和常规气象观测资料,对近62 a来登陆辽宁热带气旋的生成源地、移动路径、登陆地点、登陆强度和登陆后影响时间等进行统计分析,揭示热带气旋活动特征。结果表明:1949—2010年共有18个热带气旋登陆影响辽宁,66%以热带低压(TD)的强度登陆;61%在08—20时登陆,78%在辽宁境内活动时间为6—12 h;89%在其他地区登陆进入黄渤海后在辽宁再次登陆,大连是登陆次数最多的地区,33%登陆辽宁后减弱消失;登陆后移动路径主要有东北向、偏北向和西北向3种移动路径。在此基础上,根据业务需求建立了基于副热带高压、气旋源地和热带气旋前期路径等预报因子,确定登陆辽宁热带气旋后期移向的预报关键区,为热带气旋预报业务提供参考。Based on the data from Tropical Cyclone Annual and the conventionally meteorological data from 1949 to 2010, source region, moving path, landing sites and strength of the Tropical Cyclone（ TC）, the impact time after landing in Liaoning province were analyzed. The results indicate that there are 18 tropical cyclones landing in Liaoning province in recent 62 years. 66% of them lands with tropical depression（TD） ;61% of them lands between 08：00 to 20：00 o＇clock;78% of the landing TC lasts about 6-12 hours in Liaoning province ;89% of them makes landfall at other places and moves into the Yellow Sea or Bohai Sea before making landfall again in Liaoning prov- ince, mostly landing in Dalian;33 % of them weakens and disappears after landing in Liaoning province. The mov- ing paths of TCs are mainly northeastward, northward and northwestward after landing. Based on these analysis and operational needs, the key areas of forecasting are established in terms of the subtropical high, source region and path of tropical cyclones and so on, which could provide the reference for forecasting of tropical cyclones landfall in Liaoning province in future.

关 键 词：热带气旋 辽宁 登陆 预报关键区 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]