Trend of Antarctic Ozone Hole and Its Influencing Factors  

作　　者：BIAN Lin-Gen LIN Zhong ZHENG Xiang-Dong MA yong-Feng LU Long-Hua 

机构地区：[1]Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China

出　　处：《Advances in Climate Change Research》2012年第2期68-75,共8页气候变化研究进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the program of China Polar Environment Investigation and Assessment(2011-2015);the National Nature Science Foundation of China (No. 41076132)

摘　　要：Influencing factors, and variations and trends of Antarctic ozone hole in recent decades are analyzed, and sudden change processes of ozone at Zhongshan station and the effect of atmospheric dynamic processes on ozone changes are also discussed by using the satellite ozone data and the ground-measured ozone data at two Antarctic stations as well as the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results show that equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) and stratospheric temperature are two important factors influencing the ozone hole. The column ozone at Zhongshan and Syowa stations is significantly related with EESC and stratospheric temperature, which means that even though the two stations are both located on the edge of the ozone hole, EESC and stratospheric temperature still played a very important role in column ozone changes, and mean while verifies that EESC is applicable on the coast of east Antarctic continent. Decadal changes in EESC are similar with those of the ozone hole, and inter-annual variations of ozone are closely related with stratospheric temperature. Based on the relation of EESC and ozone hole size, it can be projected that the ozone hole size will gradually reduce to the 1980's level from 2010 to around 2070. Of course there might exist many uncertainties in the projection, which therefore needs to be further studied.

关 键 词：Antarctic ozone hole equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine （EESC） stratospheric temperature TREND 

分 类 号：P421.33[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X515[环境科学与工程—环境工程]