气候变化背景下中国南方地区季节性干旱特征与适应Ⅰ.降水资源演变特征  

Characteristics and adaption of seasonal drought in southern China under the background of global climate change.Ⅰ.Change characteristics of precipitation resource

作　　者：隋月[1,2] 黄晚华[1,3] 杨晓光[1] 李茂松[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193 [2]中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029 [3]湖南省气象科学研究所,长沙410007 [4]中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《应用生态学报》2012年第7期1875-1882,共8页Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAD04B07);公益性行业(农业)科研专项(201103001)资助

摘　　要：基于中国南方地区15个省(市、自治区)262个气象台站1959—2008年的降水量资料,分析了季尺度降水量的趋势系数、降水变率、年际及年代际标准化降水距平的变化特征.结果表明:研究期间,中国南方地区降水变化趋势的季节差异较大,大部分地区春季和秋季降水量呈减少趋势,夏季和冬季降水量呈增多趋势,但西南部分地区略有不同;研究区域春旱发生可能性减小,夏旱、秋旱和冬旱发生的可能性增加;春旱更易发生在华南地区和西南地区,夏旱和秋旱发生可能性较高的地区为长江中下游地区和华南地区,冬旱发生可能性较高地区由华南地区扩大为华南和长江中下游地区.中国南方地区春季和秋季降水自20世纪80年代以来明显偏少,夏季和冬季降水在20世纪90年代以前偏少、20世纪90年代偏多、21世纪以来又偏少.中国南方各区域季节尺度降水量标准距平的年代变化基本一致,研究时段内秋季降水量呈减少趋势,夏季和冬季降水量呈增加趋势.Based on the 1959-2008 precipitation data from 262 meteorological stations in southern China,this paper analyzed the change characteristics of seasonal precipitation trend coefficient,precipitation variability,and annual and decadal precipitation standardized anomalies in this region.In the study period,there was a great difference among the trend of quarter precipitation.In most parts of the region,the precipitation in spring and autumn presented a decreasing trend but that in summer and winter was in adverse;only in southwest part,a slightly different trend was observed.In the whole region,the probability of spring drought decreased,but that of summer drought,autumn drought,and winter drought increased.Spring drought often occurred in south and southwest parts,summer drought and autumn drought often occurred in south part and the middle,lower reaches of Yangtze River,and winter drought expanded from south part to south part and the middle,lower reaches of Yangtze River.The precipitation in spring and autumn was below the normal level after the 1980s,while that in summer and winter was below the normal level before the 1990s,above the normal level in the 1990s,and below the normal level since the 21st century.The decadal change of the seasonal precipitation standardized anomaly in each part of the region was basically consistent,i.e.,decreased in autumn and increased in summer and winter.

关 键 词：降水资源 季节性干旱 趋势系数 降水变率 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]