基于均生函数的数学预测模型在地震中期预报中的应用  

APPLICATION OF MATHEMATICAL MODEL BASED ON MEAN GENERATION FUNCTION IN EARTHQUAKE MEDIUM TERM PREDICTION

作　　者：马文静[1] 张晓清[2] 张晓东[3] 

机构地区：[1]青海省地震局,青海西宁810001 [2]中国科学技术大学地球和空间科学系,安徽合肥230026 [3]中国地震局分析预报中心,北京100036

出　　处：《西北地震学报》2000年第1期62-67,共6页Northwestern Seismological Journal

基　　金：中国地震局"九五"攻关项目! 95 0 4 0 6项目资助

摘　　要：利用均生函数数学建模方法拟合地震的震级或能量序列 ,进行地震中期趋势预测 .由于引入了“双评分准则” ,即在拟合时考虑了数量预报和趋势预报的平衡问题 ,选取合适的调整系数 ,从而提高了地震中期趋势预测的准确率 .另外采用了分级拟合的思路 ,利用残差序列逐级提高拟合的精度和速度 .利用该方法对中国大陆地区未来 1～ 3年的地震活动趋势进行了预测 .The earthquake magnitude and energy sequence are fitted by using mathematical model based on mean generation function and prediction for medium term earthquake trend of next three years are made.The method has following features:couple score criterion is applied for raising the fitting accuracy and rate;and balance between numerical prediction and trend prediction is considers;the multistage fitting of difference sequence for raising accuracy and speed of fitting is used.Besides,the optimum period of the time sequence is given.The earthquake trend of Chinese continent in next 1～3 years is forecasted by using the method.

关 键 词：中期预报 趋势预报 周期分析 数学模型 均生函数 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]