阿赛管道稳定运行的进站温度预测与评价  

Prediction and evaluation of inlet temperature for stable operation of Aershan-Saihantala Oil Pipeline

作　　者：檀家桐[1] 罗晓武[2] 吴永华 付军 敬加强[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学,四川成都610500 [2]新疆油田油气储运公司,新疆克拉玛依834000 [3]中国石油华北油田二连分公司,内蒙古锡林浩特026000

出　　处：《油气储运》2012年第6期441-443,446,共4页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

基　　金：西南石油大学石油工程学院本科生创新基金资助项目"阿赛线原油固相沉积机理研究";2011094

摘　　要：长距离热油管道输送介质的组成一般比较复杂,为维持其经济输送温度,常出现蜡等重有机物固相沉积问题。当固相沉积超过一定程度时,不仅显著增加管道系统的动力消耗,而且严重威胁其运行安全。因此,合理预测热油管道稳定运行的进站温度对保障其安全经济运行尤为重要。依据阿尔善-赛汉塔拉输油管道2008-2010年的历史运行参数,结合苏霍夫温降理论,反算全线7个管段稳定运行期间的总传热系数K,提出不同管段的月推荐K值,以此预测各管段2011年上半年的进站温度,探讨偏差产生的主要原因与预测结果的可靠性。研究结果表明:由热油管道历史运行参数反算得出的推荐K值,可以较好地预测该管道今后的温降趋势,误差在-4～4℃内的可信度高于90%,但进站温度预测值可能因固相沉积而略低于实际值。Generally,the composition of oil transported with long-distance hot oil pipeline is relatively complicated,and to keep its economic transport temperature,the problem in wax precipitation of oil easily occurs.When the solid precipitation exceeds a certain extent,it will not onlyincrease power consumption greatly,but also seriously threaten the safety of pipeline operation.Therefore,proper prediction on the inlet temperatures of hot oil pipeline maintaining itself stable operation is very important to ensure its safe and economic operation.Based on the recorded operation parameters of Aershan-Saihantala Oil Pipeline from 2008 to 2010,and in combination with Sukhov Temperature Drop Theory,the K,the total heat transfer coefficient of 7 pipeline sections in stable operation periods is calculated on the inverse computation basis,and the K value recommended for different months to relative pipe sections is proposed in order to predict the inlet temperature of the first half-year of 2011 for the pipe sections,and with which to discuss the main reasons for temperature differences produced and the reliability of predicted results.Research results show that the recommended K value obtained from inverse calculation method based on recorded operation parameters of hot oil pipeline can be used to accurately predict the future temperature drop tendency of the pipeline itself,and the credibility for the temperature deviation at-4～4 ℃ is greater than 90%.However,the inlet temperature can be slightly lower than the actual value due to wax precipitation.

关 键 词：阿尔善-赛汉塔拉输油管道 进站温度 传热系数 预测 热油管道 

分 类 号：TE832[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]