中国畜禽养殖业低碳清洁技术的EKC假说检验  

Test of the EKC Hypothesis of Low-Carbon Cleaning Technology in Livestock and Poultry Breeding in China

作　　者：田素妍[1] 郑微微[2] 周力[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学中国新农村建设研究院,江苏南京210095 [2]南京农业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2012年第7期28-33,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学基金项目(编号:10YJC790407);教育部博士点基金项目(编号:20100097120009);中央高校基本科研经费项目(编号:Y0201100268)

摘　　要：根据2003-2009年省际面板数据,文章测算了中国畜禽养殖业的碳排放总量,并建立了收入水平与碳排放强度关系的非线性计量模型,利用分地区数据进行了EKC检验。笔者认为,清洁技术是影响碳排放的最主要因素,基于此,本文将碳排放强度进行技术分解,在引入其他控制变量的条件下,重点研究了清洁技术的EKC特征。结论显示:两次EKC检验的结果方向一致,东部地区存在显著的"倒U型"关系,中、西部地区则存在显著的"正U型"关系,这与区域经济增长水平和清洁技术的采纳密切相关;东、中、西部地区清洁技术下的碳排放拐点分别为7 942.63元、2 751.77元和2 670.44元,中部地区拐点收入水平基本不变,东、西部地区拐点收入水平有所提高;除了收入水平外,东部地区的碳排放特征主要受农业产值占比、城镇化率和饲料成本的影响;中部地区主要受恩格尔系数的影响;西部地区则主要受农业产值占比、公路密度和土地成本的影响。本文认为,国家应该增加清洁技术补贴,提供技术服务,加强政府规制以及技术创新。According to provincial panel data from 2003 to 2009, total carbon emissions from poultry feeding industry are estimated, nonlinear econometric model about the relationship between income level and total carbon emissions is constructed, and partitioned data set is used to make EKC test. In our opinion, clean technology plays a significant role in carbon emission reduction. Based on this theory, the analysis of carbon emission uses decomposing technology. Considering other control quantities, the paper emphases the EKC feature of clean technology. The conclusion shows that the directions of the two EKC test results are consistent. There is an inverted U relationship in the data of the eastern area. The inflexion of carbon emission curve according to clean technology in the eastern, central, western areas is 7 942.63 yuan, 2 751.77 yuan and 2 670.44 yuan respectively. The inflexion of income level curve in the central area stays the same, and that in eastern and western areas is up. Apart from income level, the carbon emission feature of the eastern area is influenced by the cost proportion of agriculture production value, urbanization rate and feed cost. The carbon emission feature of the central area is influenced by Engelian coefficient, and that of the western area is influenced by the proportion of agriculture production value, density of highways and land cost. The paper holds that, the country should increase the amount of subsidy to develop clean technology, provide technical service and reinforce government regulation and technological innovation.

关 键 词：EKC 清洁技术 碳排放 畜禽养殖业 

分 类 号：F3[经济管理—产业经济]