累积危险度的动态演化及其与强震的关系  

Dynamic evolution of accumulation risk dimension and its relation with strong earthquakes

作　　者：车兆宏[1] 张鹤[1] 杨凌 范燕[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局综合观测中心,北京100039

出　　处：《地震》2000年第2期1-6,共6页Earthquake

基　　金：中国地震局"九五"科研攻关项目!( 95-0 4 -0 1 -0 2 )部分成果

摘　　要：完善了累积危险度的强震危险地点跟踪预测方法 ,并对 1 989年以来首都圈及邻近地区累积危险度的演化进行了分析。结果表明 ,累积危险度的演化过程 ,反映了地震孕育及构造应力活动的进程 ;2次 6级地震前 ,均出现累积危险度数值增大 ,震后扩散—消退 ;In this paper,a tracing prediction method of risk sites of strong earthquakes by using the accumulation risk dimension has been improved and the evolution of the accumulation risk dimension in the Capital Circle and its neighboring areas since 1 989has been analyzed. The evolution process of the accumulation risk dimension reflects the course of earthquake preparation and tectonic stress activity. The value of the accumulation risk dimension increased before the two earthquakes whose magnitudes are greater than 6and decreased after the earthquakes. The high value area of the accumulation risk dimension is the potential earthquake occurrence site.

关 键 词：地震综合预报 累积危险度 跟踪预测 强震 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]