华北地区强震前兆空间动态场中短期综合预报研究  

Study on medium-and short-term comprehensive prediction of the precursory spatial dynamic fields for strong earthquake in North China region

作　　者：李平[1] 朱元清[2] 肖兰喜[3] 宋俊高[2] 周翠英[3] 许跃敏[2] 骆勇涛 

机构地区：[1]中国科技大学地球和空间科学系,安徽合肥230026 [2]上海市地震局,上海200062 [3]山东省地震局,山东济南250014

出　　处：《地震》2000年第2期37-47,共11页Earthquake

基　　金：中国地震局"九五"科研攻关项目!( 95-0 4 -0 3 -0 4 )子专题

摘　　要：通过 8 0多种测震学指标的筛选和多种稳定性试验 ,探索以一种新的指标筛选法——“对比筛选法”选取地震学单参数 ,在此基础上提取地震学综合预报指标 P值。由此 ,发展了一种新的测震学的定量综合预报方法 SQIP。同时研究了非测震学前兆综合指标 PP值的确定和应用效果检验及其空间扫描的动态显示 ,尝试了震兆指标和前兆指标联合应用于地震预报的研究。以动态的思维逻辑不断追踪地震活动的异常行为 ,判定地震在中短期的危险地点。应用数学物理方法将各种前兆观测量转换为统一的无量纲地震信息量。在华北地区时空扫描实例的检验中其预报效能 R为 0 .66。The paper described a new method of sifting index-“Comparing-Screening Method” to select seismological indices through sifting more than 80 seismological parameters and making several tests of stability.We extract P -value of seismological precursory comprehensive prediction index,then develop a new method for the seismological quantitative integrated prediction (SQIP) .Meanwhile,we study PP -value of non-seismological precursory index in earthquake prediction.The study follows the trail of anomalous behavior seismic activity with the dynamic thought to determine the strong earthquake location ofmedium-and short-term.Each item of precursory observational data is transformed to unified non-dimensional seismic information with the principle of mathematical-physical sciences.The Rof predictionevaluation obtained is0 .66in the example of the space-time scanning in North China. A certain practicability has been showed.

关 键 词：地震前兆 空间动态场 中短期综合预报 华北地区 

分 类 号：P415.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]