利差、准备金率与货币增速--量化货币政策效率的均衡分析  

Interest Margin,Ratio of Deposits and Monetary Growth Rate: Equilibrium Analysis on the Efficiency of the Quantitative Monetary Policy

作　　者：周炎[1] 陈昆亭[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学光华管理学院博士研究生,100871 [2]宁波大学商学院,邮政编码:315211

出　　处：《经济研究》2012年第7期22-34,74,共14页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：宁波大学区域经济与社会发展研究院研究项目“‘浙江示范区’海洋经济周期与增长问题研究:指标体系与发展图谱建设”(QYJYD1203)支持;浙江省自然科学基金重点项目(编号:LZ12G03001)“民间金融系统性风险生成机制与管理”支持

摘　　要：本文引入银行中介部门优化行为,建立了一个内生信贷需求与供给的金融经济周期模型,分析经济波动和货币政策对金融总量、经济总量、货币乘数等的影响。比较静态分析发现,准备金率具有逆周期特征。动态分析发现,货币创新与准备金率提高具有相互抵消效应。通过中国数据校准参数后进行模拟发现,单纯的法定准备金率调整政策不仅不能有效抚平信贷市场波动,反而可能会造成信贷市场的不稳定。同时模型经济还预测到金融部门的活动对经济会产生巨大影响,而恰当的货币手段和准备金率手段的组合使用可以达到稳定经济的目标。对中国数据的实证分析表明,模型经济的主要特征同实际经济特征具有较好的一致性。This paper establishes an endogenous-credit financial business cycle model, to study how different monetary policies and economic fluctuations affect financial aggregate variables, economic aggregate variables, and monetary multiplier. By comparative static analysis, we find that deposit-reserve ratio is eountercyclical. By dynamic analysis, this paper shows that monetary innovation and the increase of deposit-reserve ratio cancel each other out. This paper fits the model to China data, and finds that the policies simply adjusting deposit-reserve ratio can not smooth the fluctuations, instead of being the cause of the instability of credit market. The model also predicts the activities of financial sectors greatly affect the economy, and the suitable combination of monetary policies and deposit-reserve ratio polices can stable the economy. This explains the procyclieal feature of the monetary innovation and the change of the deposit-reserve ratio. The empirical analysis shows the key features of the model fits the facts of real economy well.

关 键 词：利率 准备金率 内生信贷 经济周期动态 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F822.0