基于实测洪水系列和最小熵方法的施工导流风险  

Construction diversion risk analysis based on observed flood series and minimum entropy method

作　　者：张超[1] 胡志根[1] 刘全[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2012年第3期296-300,共5页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:51079115;10902078)

摘　　要：基于实测年最不利施工洪水过程,考虑导流建筑物泄流能力的随机性,构建堰前年最高水位随机模拟计算模型,提出以堰前年最高水位的概率分布计算施工导流风险的方法.同时,应用最小信息熵准则判别年最高堰前水位样本最优的概率分布类型,克服了假设检验有时会接受多种概率分布类型的不足.最后,通过工程实例比较分析随机模拟方法的计算结果,验证了该方法的可行性和有效性,为施工导流风险分析提供了新的途径.Based on observed annual worst construction flood process,considering the randomness of diversion building discharge capacity,the random model of annual maximum water level before cofferdam is established;the probability distribution of annual maximum upstream water level is used to calculate the construction diversion risk.Meanwhile,minimum entropy criterion is used to choose the optimum probability distribution,avoiding the drawback of traditional hypothesis test that accept kinds of distribution.The engineering case study shows that this method is effective and practical;so as to provide a new way for construction diversion risk analysis.

关 键 词：施工导流风险 堰前年最高水位 最不利施工洪水过程 最小信息熵 实测洪水 

分 类 号：TV551.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]