伦敦奥运会中国队奖牌数和排名预测  

A Prediction of China's Medals and Ranking in London Olympic Games

作　　者：林海明[1,2] 石立[2] 景曼[2] 

机构地区：[1]广东商学院国民经济研究中心,广东广州510320 [2]广东商学院华商学院,广东广州510320

出　　处：《中国体育科技》2012年第4期21-25,共5页China Sport Science and Technology

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(2009JJD910001);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(2009YJA910002);广东省普通高校人文社会科学研究项目(10WYXM 020);广东商学院华商学院院级重点项目(HS2011047)

摘　　要：为了预测伦敦奥运会中国队奖牌数及其排名,从历届奥运会奖牌数据中,选取对奥运会趋势预测有代表性的数据,用计量经济、时间序列分析等方法,在理论意义、统计检验、计量检验通过的条件下,对奥运会体育强国奖牌数进行趋势预测。结果显示:预测伦敦奥运会中国队将取得46金16银37铜,合计99块奖牌,金牌数保持第1,奖牌数至少是第2名,并对中国队参赛提出一些建议,并说明预测方法应用的条件。In order to predict China^s medals and ranking in 2012 London Olympic Games, this paper collects the data of Olympic Games medals in the past, select representative samples to predict the number of medals of Olympic powers by using regression analysis and the time series analysis. As a result, Chinese team will won 99 medals in which 46 gold medals, 16 silver medal and 37 bronze medals. The ranking of the number of gold medals is No. 1, the ranking of the number of total medals at least No. 2. Based on it, some suggestions to Chinese team are put forwarded, the prediction method and application conditions are described.

关 键 词：伦敦奥运会 中国队 奖牌数 预测 

分 类 号：G811.8[文化科学—体育学]