沈阳“8·21”罕见冰雹防雹天气预警再分析  

Reanalysis on Hail Suppression Weather Prewarning of the “8.21” Rare Hail in Shenyang

作　　者：田广元[1] 胡伟[1] 杨旭[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省人工影响天气办公室,辽宁沈阳110016

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2012年第21期10984-10986,11049,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：[目的]分析2011年8月21日18:30～19:30期间发生的冰雹天气。[方法]利用NCEP 6 h再分析资料、Micaps资料、FY-2卫星云图资料,对2011年8月21日18:30～19:30期间发生的冰雹天气的天气形势场、冰雹特征气象要素场和卫星云图进行再分析,探讨此次冰雹的天气成因及冰雹云的云图特征,总结如何从实况天气资料及数值预报产品进行防雹天气预警分析。[结果]此次冰雹天气的发生发展过程,高空500 hPa冷涡是背景天气系统,低空850 hPa暖舌和地面风切变是形成强对流冰雹云的必要条件;分析尽早时次的天气图,可以从天气系统的机理方面分析天气的发生原因,并能尽早地发出天气预警;利用数值预报产品分析冰雹特征气象要素场,可以更进一步地分析并精确地预测冰雹发生的概率、时间以及范围;而红外卫星云图对于对流旺盛的冰雹云的监测更准确,特征更明显,可以更直观地预测冰雹天气的发生。[结论]该研究为今后类似的冰雹天气提供防雹预警经验。[Objective] The research aimed to analyze hail weather during 18：30-19：30 on August 21,2011.[Method] Based on NCEP 6 h reanalysis data,Micaps data and FY-2 satellite cloud image,the weather situation field,hail characteristic meteorological element field and satellite cloud image of the hail weather during 18：30-19：30 on August 21,2011 were reanalyzed.Weather causes of the hail and characteristic of the satellite cloud image were discussed.We summed up how to conduct prewarning analysis of the hail suppression weather from the live weather data and numerical forecast products.[Result] In occurrence and development process of the hail weather,cold vortex at 500 hPa was background weather system.850 hPa warm tongue and ground wind shear were essential conditions for forming strong convective hail cloud.Weather chart at early time was analyzed.It could analyze occurrence reason of the weather from mechanism aspect of the weather system,and issue weather prewarning as early as possible.Numerical forecast products were used to analyze hail characteristic meteorological element field.It could further analyze and accurately predict occurrence probability,time and range of the hail.Infrared satellite cloud image was more accurate for monitoring of the strong convective hail cloud,which could intuitively predict occurrence of the hail weather.[Conclusion] The research offered some hail suppression prewarning experiences for the future similar hail weather.

关 键 词：NCEP再分析资料 冰雹 天气预警 防雹 沈阳 

分 类 号：S427[农业科学—植物保护]