典型气象因素对省网夏季日最大负荷的影响  

Research on effects of summer representative meteorological factors on daily peak load of provincial power grid

作　　者：李湘华[1] 宋尖[2] 刘阳升[2] 张斌[1] 陈驾宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南省电力公司发展策划部,湖南长沙410007 [2]长沙理工大学电气与信息工程学院,湖南长沙410114

出　　处：《电力科学与技术学报》2012年第2期70-75,共6页Journal of Electric Power Science And Technology

基　　金：湖南省电力公司科技项目(RKT2011020);湖南省研究生科研创新项目资助(CX2011B359)

摘　　要：针对湖南省的气象特点和电源特点,研究该地区夏季持续高温、连续晴天和持续降水等典型气象因素对省网日最大统调负荷的影响.刻画高温累积效应以直观描述持续高温对负荷产生的影响,定义连续晴天数和降水累积滞后效应,用以反映连续晴天和持续降水对小水电出力的影响.通过分析典型气象因素和人们生产生活规律等影响因素,建立基于差分法的多元线性短期负荷预测模型.对近年湖南夏季日最大统调负荷进行模型仿真和实例预测,取得了较好的预测效果.According to the distinctive meteorological characteristics and source operation mode in Hunan province, the impacts of representative meteorological factors in summer, including duratire heat, continuous sunshine and incessant rainfall, on daily peak centralized scheduled load in concerned area were studied. Heat cumulative effect was portrayed to visually express the impact of durative heat. Continuous sunny days and the rainfall cumulative lagging effect were defined to reflect effects of continuous sunshine and incessant rainfall on small hydro-power output. A differential method based multivariate linear short-term load forecasting model was established by analyzing representative meteorological factors and production, living pattern. Model simulations and forecasting examples showed that the methods have good forecasting results.

关 键 词：日最大负荷 高温累积效应 小水电 降水累积滞后效应 连续晴天数 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]