旅游业发展与经济增长关系的实证研究——以湖南省为例  

Empirical Research on Relationship between Tourism Development and Economic Growth——A Case Study of Hunan Province

作　　者：窦银娣[1] 杨森[1] 胡凯玲[1] 李伯华[1] 

机构地区：[1]衡阳师范学院资源环境与旅游管理系,湖南衡阳421008

出　　处：《衡阳师范学院学报》2012年第3期105-108,共4页Journal of Hengyang Normal University

基　　金：教育部人文社科项目(12YJC630039);湖南省社会科学基金项目(2010YBB029);衡阳市社科规划项目(2011C030);衡阳师范学院青年项目(10A39)

摘　　要：通过建立国内旅游收入、入境旅游外汇收入与GDP之间的经济计量模型,运用协整理论及格兰杰(Granger)因果检验,研究湖南省是否存在"旅游主导"经济,或者"经济带动"旅游业发展,并通过模型检验研究了湖南省国内旅游收入、入境旅游外汇收入对经济增长的贡献额度。研究结果表明:湖南省存在旅游主导经济增长,国内旅游收入对经济增长的贡献度较高于入境旅游外汇收入。经济增长对入境旅游业发展有显著影响,但对国内旅游发展影响较小。By building econometric models among domestic tourism income, inbound tourism revenue and GDP, and using co-in tegration theory and Granger Causality Tests, this article tries to find out it ＂tourism-leading＂ economy or ＂economy-drive- tourism development＂ existed in Hunan Province. Then it studies the contribution of domestic tourism income and inbound tourism revenue to economy growth in Hunan Province by model checking. The results show that there is ＂tourism-leading＂ e conomy existed in Hunan Province. The contribution of domestic tourism income to economy growth is higher than inbound tourism revenue. Economy growth has a significant impact on inbound tourism hut less impact on domestic tourism.

关 键 词：旅游业 计量模型 协整理论 GRANGER因果检验 湖南省 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]