基于向量夹角余弦的水文组合预报方法  

Hydrological combined forecasting method based-on vector angular cosine

作　　者：申海[1,2] 解建仓[1] 李建勋[1] 李维乾[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学,西安710048 [2]西安外国语大学基础教学部,西安710128

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2012年第7期1591-1597,共7页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)(2006AA01A126);国家自然科学基金(51109177)

摘　　要：针对水文预报中单个水文预报模型预报精度不高的问题,提出基于向量夹角余弦的水文组合预报方法.该方法采用组合预测理论建立了实测向量、预报向量和权值向量,形成向量夹角余弦模型;根据不同的历史水文资料状况,给出拟合优度和动态逼近两种可变权值计算方法,完成参数的率定,并将各参数对预报精度的影响加以分析.实验表明:该方法能够有效地克服单个水文预报模型的不足,通过实现多个单项水文预报模型的组合,可将预报合格率提升约20%.According to the low accuracy problem of single hydrological forecasting model in hydrological forecasting, a hydrological combined forecasting method was put forward based on vector angular cosine. Applying the theory of combination forecasting, this paper was to establish measurement vector, prediction vector and weight vector, to construct vector angular cosine model. This paper discusses fitting goodness and dynamic approximation as two variable weights calculation methods for different conditions of historical hydrological data; Completes calibration and initialization of parameters, and analyzes the influencing factors of forecasting accuracy by parameters. The results show that this method can effectively overcome the lack of individual hydrological forecasting, and achieve a combination model from individual hydrological forecasting with more than 20% pass rate.

关 键 词：向量夹角余弦 水文预报 水文组合预报 

分 类 号：TV697.1[水利工程—水利水电工程] TP18[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]