中国服务贸易潜力——基于引力模型的测算  

Potential of China's Trade in Services: A Study Based on Gravity Model

作　　者：刘正凯[1] 

机构地区：[1]东华大学旭日工商管理学院,上海200051

出　　处：《国际商务研究》2012年第4期60-74,共15页International Business Research

摘　　要：国外使用引力模型研究服务贸易始于2002年,国内研究则起步稍晚,至2009年方有学者致力于此类研究。从使用数据和实证模型两方面看,现有研究都有可进一步拓展的潜力。本文基于引力模型对服务贸易的决定因素进行识别与测算。本文在实证部分采用了基本引力模型,使用4种计量方法。结果显示:贸易双方经济规模、经济发展水平、物理距离和自由贸易区对总服务贸易额和分部门贸易额的影响表现出不同的显著性。It is not until 2002 that international scholars tion. Chinese scholars did not do the same study until began to study trade in services with gravity equa- 2009. Based on the gravity model, this paper dis- tinguishes and measures the determinants of trade in services and then estimates the export potential of China＇ s trade in services. In the empirical part of this paper, basic and expand gravity models are used, and four measurement methods are applied. The result shows that GDP, population, physical distance and FTA show different significance when they impact the total volumes of trade in service and sub - sectors respectively.

关 键 词：引力模型 服务贸易 贸易潜力 决定因素 

分 类 号：F727[经济管理—产业经济]