不良妊娠结局孕妇血清学指标的判别分析  

Discriminant analysis on serological indexes of pregnant women with adverse pregnancy outcome

作　　者：袁晖[1] 王宏[2] 官勇[3] 欧阳淑媛[2] 吴晓霞[1] 文华轩[3] 谢建生[4,5] 

机构地区：[1]广东省深圳市妇幼保健院产科,518028 [2]深圳市妇幼保健院检验科 [3]深圳市妇幼保健院超声科 [4]深圳市妇幼保健院中心实验室 [5]南方医科大学附属深圳市妇幼保健院

出　　处：《中国妇幼保健》2012年第21期3256-3258,共3页Maternal and Child Health Care of China

摘　　要：目的:通过孕妇血清学指标建立不良妊娠结局的预测模型。方法:采用回顾性调查的方法,对2008年～2010年深圳地区唐氏综合征筛查神经管缺陷高风险118例孕妇不良妊娠结局的血清学指标进行逐步判别,建立相应的判别模型。结果:118例中,随访确诊61例不良妊娠。逐步判别分析将孕妇年龄及甲胎蛋白水平纳入判别模型后判别效果最好;回顾性误判分析显示有17例发生误判,总误判率为14.4%,总准确率为85.6%;而交叉核实法显示有18例发生误判,总误判率为15.3%,总准确率为84.7%。判别模型的灵敏度为83.3%,特异性为90.0%。结论:利用孕妇血清学指标建立判别模型,有利于提高高风险孕妇不良妊娠结局预测的准确性,有助于指导临床诊断。Objective： To establish the model to predict the adverse pregnancy outcomes of pregnant women by detecting the sero- logical indexes. Methods： A retrospective investigation method was used to gradually discriminate the serological indexes of 118 pregnant women with adverse pregnancy outcome who were found with high risks of Down＇s syndrome and neural tube defect in Shenzhen region from 2008 to 2010, then corresponding discriminant model was established. Results： Among 118 pregnant women, 61 women were diagnosed as adverse pregnancy outcome definitely during follow - up. The effect of discrimination was the best after including maternal age and alpha feto- protein level into discriminant model in gradual discriminant analysis; retrospective discriminant analysis showed that 17 pregnant women were discriminated erroneously , the total erroneous discrimination rate was 14.4%, the total accurate rate was 85.6% ; cross validation showed that 18 pregnant women were discriminated erroneously , the total erroneous discrimination rate was 15.3%, the total accurate rate was 84. 7%. The sensitivity and specificity of discriminant model were 83.3% and 90.0%, respectively. Conclusion： Establishing discrim- inant model by serological indexes of pregnant women is helpful to improve the accuracy of prediction of adverse pregnancy outcome in high risk pregnant women and guide clinical diagnosis.

关 键 词：不良妊娠结局 年龄 甲胎蛋白 判别分析 

分 类 号：R715.3[医药卫生—妇产科学]