基于证据推理的软件项目投标风险评估  

The risk evaluation of software project bidding based on evidence reasoning

作　　者：曹萍[1] 陈福集[1] 

机构地区：[1]福州大学公共管理学院,福建福州350108

出　　处：《科研管理》2012年第7期106-111,128,共7页Science Research Management

基　　金：国家杰出青年项目(70925004)2009.9-2012.9;国家社科项目(10CGL005)2010.6-2012.6

摘　　要：对软件项目的投标风险进行评估,是承包方选择项目的依据和提高软件项目成功率的有效手段。本文构建了软件投标项目风险评估的三级评价指标体系;并针对指标存在不确定性的特点,应用ER方法建立了软件项目的投标风险评估模型,对软件投标风险进行了综合评估。该模型解决了评价指标存在的不确定性和不完全信息的问题,案例分析说明该方法对软件投标项目风险评估的有效性和实用性。The bidding risk assessment of software projects is the basis of projects selection and an effective means for increasing the success rate of software projects. A three - level evaluation index system is built for the risk assessment of the software pro- ject. Considering the uncertainty of some indicators, a bidding risk evaluation model based on evidential reasoning method is pro- posed to synthetically evaluate the bidding risk of software project. The model is able to solve the uncertainty and incomplete in- formation problems of evaluation index. Case studies illustrate that the proposed approach is effective and practical.

关 键 词：软件项目 投标风险 证据推理 

分 类 号：C931.2[经济管理—管理学]