“中国货币之谜”:事实还是假象  

“Monetary Puzzle in China”:True or False

作　　者：陈望远[1] 李仲飞[1] 黄金波[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学,广州510275

出　　处：《中国经济问题》2012年第4期32-41,共10页China Economic Studies

基　　金：广东省普通高校人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"人民币汇率价格传递对广东省进出口的影响"(09JDXM79019)

摘　　要：本文坚持传统的二分法,避开短期问题的复杂性,利用非参数回归方法和新的数据处理方法,着重研究了货币供应量与通货膨胀的长期关系。实证检验结果否定我国存在通货膨胀与货币供应量的"反常规"关系,得出通货膨胀与货币供应量的长期正相关关系,而且随着观察间隔期的延长,这种正相关关系越来越显著,以上结果对于三种不同的货币度量口径和两种不同的回归方法(参数和非参数)都是非常显著和稳健的;长期内,M0和M1增长率变动能解释通货膨胀率变动的90%,但货币增长率对通货膨胀率的边际影响小于1;对非参数估计结果与参数估计结果进行对比,我们发现我国的货币增长率与通货膨胀率并不是线性关系,而是呈现非线性关系;最后,我们认为基于简单数量方程得出的我国存在"超额"货币供给的结论是不可靠的,从而我们得出所谓的"中国货币之谜"只不过是一个假象。This paper stick to the traditional dichotomy, to avoid short-term complexity of the problem, using non-parametric regression methods and new methods of data processing,focused on the long-term relationship between money supply and infla- tion. Our empirical test results denied the existence of inflation and money supply＂ unconventional＂ relationship, inflation and money supply reached the long-term positive relationship, and with the observation interval prolongation, this positive correlation between increasing significantly, the above results for the three different monetary measure diameter and two different regression methods（ parametric and nonparametric）are very significant and robust;the long term, M0 and M1 growth rate changes can ex- plain changes in the inflation rate of 90 %, but the rate of money growth on inflation, the marginal impact of less than 1 ; com- pared the non-parametric estimation results with the results of parameter estimation, we find that China＇s monetary growth and inflation rate is not linear, but showed non-linear relationship ; Finally, we consider the number of equations derived based on the simple existence of our country＂ excessive＂ money supply is not reliable conclusions, which we have come to the so-called＂ mystery of China＇s currency＂ is only an illusion.

关 键 词：数量方程 长期数据 非参数 局部线性 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F822