SWAT模型水文过程模拟的数据不确定性分析——以青海湖布哈河流域为例  

The Uncertainty in Meteorological and Hydrological Processes Modeled by Using SWAT Model——A Case Study in the Buhachu River Basin

作　　者：龙银平[1,2] 张耀南[1,3] 赵国辉[1,3] 严鹏 李其江 李润杰 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049 [3]甘肃省高性能网格计算中心,甘肃兰州730000 [4]青海省水文水资源勘测局,青海西宁810001

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2012年第3期660-667,共8页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(91125005);国家自然科学基金"冰川学冻土学特殊学科点人才基金"项目(J0930003/J0109);中国科学院信息化专项项目(INFO-115-D01-2007)资助

摘　　要：降水、气温的空间分布是影响流域水量平衡模拟的关键因素,运用距离权重反比法(IDW)、梯度距离权重反比法(GIDW)、样条函数法(Spline)和克里金插值法(Kriging)对青海湖流域及周边地区43个气象站1995—2009年逐日气温和降水进行了空间插值,并以气象要素空间插值数据驱动模型,进行布哈河流域径流模拟.选用布哈河口月平均流量,以Nash-Suttclife系数(Ens)、相关系数(R)和相对误差(RE)为评价指标,进行校准期(2000—2004年)和验证期(2005—2009年)的径流模拟效果比较.结果表明:径流模拟精度较高,GIDW和IDW更适合于布哈河流域的气象要素空间化,并且气象要素空间插值数据误差是引起模型模拟不确定性和参数据不确定性的原因之一.Spatial distributions of precipitation and air temperature are key factors affecting water balance modeling in a watershed.In this paper,the inverse distance weighting（IDW）,gradient plus inverse distance weighting（GIDW）,spline and Kriging methods were used to spatially interpolate the daily precipitation and air temperature data from 43 weather stations around the Buhachu basin from 1995 to 2000.Then the four interpolated weather data were used to drive Soil and Water Assessment Tool to conduct runoff modeling,taking 2000-2004 as the calibration period and 2005-2009 as the validation period.The simulated and observed monthly runoffs at the Buhahekou Hydrometrical Station were compared through Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency（Ens）,coefficient of correlation（R） and relative error（RE）.The results show that the performance of runoff model driven by GIDW and IDW interpolated data is better,and GIDW is most suitable for weather data interpolation in Buhachu basin,judging by snowmelt and runoff coefficients.It is found that errors in the spatial interpolated weather data cause uncertainties in hydrological process modeling and parameter estimation.

关 键 词：空间插值 径流模拟 不确定性分析 青海湖 布哈河流域 

分 类 号：P208[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程]