汇率波动、外部冲击与通货膨胀  

Exchange Rate and Exterior Impact Function on Inflation

作　　者：周光友[1] 邵锦萍[1] 陈睿洁[2] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学金融研究院,上海200433 [2]广东水利电力职业技术学院经济管理系,广东广州510635

出　　处：《广东金融学院学报》2012年第4期3-13,46,共12页Journal of Guangdong University of Finance

基　　金：教育部人文社科基金一般项目(10YJC790405);上海市社科规划一般项目(2011BJB001);国家社科基金重点项目(09AZD019)

摘　　要：以国际金融危机和人民币升值预期为背景,深入分析汇率波动、外部冲击对通货膨胀的影响机制,并构建通货膨胀的决定模型进行实证检验,结果表明在国际金融危机背景下,汇率波动和外部冲击是影响中国通货膨胀长期的、重要的因素;且人民币升值短期内会在一定程度上会引起物价上升,但18个月后这种影响就会消失甚至相反;同时通过FDI途径进入中国的国外资本进入实体经济不会造成国内通货膨胀,而通过QFII间接投资以及通过非法途径进入国内的资本将会助推通胀的形成;此外金融危机期间,外部冲击对中国物价水平的影响明显大于国内因素。因此,在人民币升值预期下,不能根据物价水平的短期回落来判断通货膨胀的长期趋势;在治理通货膨胀时应充分注重外部冲击对通货膨胀的影响,并建立治理通货膨胀的长效机制。Based on the international financial crisis and the expectation of RMB appreciation, this article analyzes the mechanism of fluctuation of exchange rate and exterior impact on inflation, constructs a meaningful inflation model, as well as carries on the empirical test. The study shows the follows ： Under the circumstances of financial crisis, it is the fluctuation of exchange rate and exterior impact that play the important role in the tendency of inflation in the long run in China;and appreciation of RMB will result in the rise of CPI to a certain extent in the short-term period;this influence, however, will disappear or even reverse 18 months later;at the same time, foreign capitals, which flow into domestic market and entry the real economy through FDI, have no impact on the formation of inflation while the capitals through QFII or illegal way would contribute to inflation;moreover, as a matter of fact, China＇ s CPI has been influenced more significantly by exterior impact than domestic factors during the financial crisis. Therefore we conclude that it is unreasonable to judge the long -term inflation tendency in accordance with the short -term down of CPI. In the process of inflation management,we must pay attention to exterior impact and make efforts to build effective mechanism for the long-term purpose.

关 键 词：汇率波动 外部冲击 通货膨胀 JOHANSEN检验 广义脉冲响应 

分 类 号：F822.5[经济管理—财政学]