CCA对中国夏季降水场的预报试验和诊断结果  

FORECASTING EXPERIMENTS AND DIAGNOSTIC RESULTS OF THE CCA MODEL ON SUMMER PRECIPITATION OF CHINA

作　　者：黄茂怡[1] 黄嘉佑[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学地球物理系,北京100871

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2000年第A06期31-39,共9页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：国家“九五”重中之重科技攻关项目!“我国短期气候预测系统的研究”96-908-04-01-3专题;国家重点基础研究发展规划项目“我国重大气候和天气灾害形成机理和预测理论的研究”G1998040901-1的资助。

摘　　要：该文将典型相关分析应用于中国汛期的降水场预报 ,并对其进行了独立样本检验和回报检验 ,试验结果表明 ,本模式对我国汛期的降水有较好的预报能力 .文章对模式的输出量对我国夏季的降水场及其影响因子进行了诊断分析 ,从而加深了对我国短期气候变化的理解 .WT5BZ] A CCA statistical model is constructed to forecast the summer precipitation of China. To test the effectiveness of the model, individual sample tests and hindcast tests are made. The results indicate that the model performs well in the forecasting of summer precipitation of China. According to the output of the model, the relationship between the precipitation and its influence factors is diagnosed so as to enhance the understanding of the short range climate change of China.

关 键 词：CCA 夏季降水场 预报 诊断 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]