短期气候数值预测可预报性问题  

STUDY ON THE PREDICTABILITY OF NUMERICAL SHORT-TERM CLIMATE PREDICTION

作　　者：赵彦[1] 郭裕福[1] 袁重光[1] 李旭[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室LASG,北京100029

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2000年第A06期65-71,共7页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：<国家重点基础研究发展规划> G1 9980 4 0 90 0项目第一部分;"九五"国家攻关课题!96-90 8-0 4 -0 1专题;国家自然科学基金项目

摘　　要：该文利用 IAP L2 AGCM1 - 1模式进行 1 7年 ( 1 980～ 1 996年 )、每年 9个单个积分的集合后报试验 ,采用方差分析的方法对试验结果进行可预报性研究 .结果表明 :在热带地区 ,海表温度 ( SST)异常引起的可预报性较高 ,50 0 h Pa高度场高值区沿热带呈带状分布 ,在热带外仅有部分相对高值区 ;在中高纬度地区 ,春季的可预报性高于夏季 ;一般来说各场的可预报性海洋高于陆地 .在北太平洋春季 ,50 0 h Pa高度场、海平面气压场和表面气温场有一可预报高值区 .在中国区域 ,降水场、海平面气压场和表面气温场的可预报性从我国南海向西北递减 .The study considers an ensemble of nine 17 year (1980~1996) hindcast experiments conducted with the first generation General Circulation Model (IAP L2 AGCM 1.1 ) of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics. Forced by prescribed SST, each experiment is run from Feb.15 to Aug.31. The Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) technique is applied to the fields of 500 hPa geopotential height, sea level pressure (SLP), air temperature and precipitation. The results show that the predictability of atmospheric seasonal variations induced by SST anomalies is high in tropics and moderate in extratropics except some areas. In extratropics, the predictability is higher in spring (MAM) than in summer (JJA). In general, the predictability over ocean is higher than in land. In the North Pacific, there exists a region with high predictability for the fields of 500 hPa geopotential height, SLP and air temperature. As for China, the predictability decreases from the South China Sea to the northwest for the fileds of precipitation, SLP and air temperature.

关 键 词：方差分析 可预报性 短期气候 数值预报 

分 类 号：P456.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P456.7