利用天气雷达观测资料预报小流域流量  

A new technique to predict small-scale basin discharges using weather radar observations

作　　者：张亚萍 程明虎[2] 刘德 

机构地区：[1]重庆市气象台,重庆401147 [2]中国气象局气象探测中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象学报》2012年第3期562-575,共14页Acta Meteorologica Sinica

基　　金：重庆市科技攻关计划项目(CSTC;2009AC0126);国家自然科学基金资助项目(40575009);国家公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200806002);科技部国家软科学研究计划(2008GXS5B096)

摘　　要：将天气雷达降水临近预报与半分布式水文模型TOPMODEL(TOPography based hydrological MODEL)相结合,研究了降水临近预报延伸小流域流量预报预见期的可行性。研究流域为淠河(安徽省内)上游的佛子岭流域(1813km^2)内划分出的6个上游源头小流域(约60—100km^2)。用雷达估测的降水得到的流量输出作为参考,与1h降水临近预报得到的流量输出进行比较。结果表明:定量降水临近预报准确率是延伸小流域流量预报预见期的关键;基于所研究的个例,定量降水临近可以延长小流域流量预报预见期平均约0.7h左右,但其延长程度还受到具体降水过程、流域属性等的影响。The feasibility of extending the lead time with which small basin discharges can be forecasted is investigated through the combined use of the radar quantitative precipitation nowcast （QPN） and the semi-distributed hydrologic modeling TOPMODEL （TOPography based hydrological MODEL）. The study area includes the six small headwater basins （about 60- 100 km2） subdivided from Foziling basin （1813 km^2） in the upper reaches of the Pihe river located in Anhui Province （east China）. Discharges for the events computed using radar estimates directly are assumed to be the references against which discharges driven by the nowcast precipitation fields are compared. It manifested that the accuracy of QPN is especially critical in exten- ding the lead time for the prediction of small basin discharges; QPN of high accuracy can extend the lead time to about 0.7 hours for the cases chosen in this study, and the extended-lead time varies with specific rainfall processes and the hydrological characteristics of each basin.

关 键 词：天气雷达 定量降水临近预报 半分布式水文模型(TOPMODEL) 小流域 流量预报 

分 类 号：P407[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]