中国经济增长与能源消费依从关系——基于1978～2010年数据的实证研究  

An Empirical Study on the Relationship Between Economic Growth and Energy Consumption in China

作　　者：张劲文[1] 葛新权[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京市社会科学院中国总部经济研究中心,北京100120 [2]北京信息科技大学经济管理学院,北京100085

出　　处：《首都经济贸易大学学报》2012年第4期14-23,共10页Journal of Capital University of Economics and Business

基　　金：美国大卫与露茜尔.派克德基金会;威廉与佛洛拉.休利特基金会;能源基金会共同资助<中国可持续城市项目>(项目资助号G-0304-06827)

摘　　要：能源对中国经济快速发展的瓶颈效应逐渐显现出来,正确把握好能源消费与经济增长的关系并出台高效的经济引导政策对中国经济的可持续稳定发展具有战略意义。遵循格兰杰因果关系检验的前提假设,采用协整检验和误差修正模型可以对中国经济增长与能源消费的内在依从关系进行动态分析。结果表明:1978～2010年间存在从国内生产总值到能源消费总量和煤炭消费量的单向格兰杰因果关系。同时利用相应误差修正模型进行动态预测得出2020年前中国能源消费总量年均增长率将达到5%左右,煤炭消费量年均增速约为7%。The bottleneck effect of energy on the rapid development of China＇s economy appears gradually, so it is of strategic significance for the sustainable and stable development of China＇s economy to correctly handle the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption. This paper strictly conforms to the assumptions of Granger Causality Test, and makes a dynamic research on the inherent relationship between economic growth and energy consumption in Cointegration Test and ECM. The results indicate that there is single - direction causality from GDP to total energy consumption and coal consumption respectively between 1978 dynamic forecasts in ECM demonstrate that the growth erage annual reaches to 5% and 7% respectively. rate of total energy consumption and 2010. Meanwhile, the and coal consumption in average annum reaches to 5% and 7% respectively.

关 键 词：经济增长 能源消费 误差修正模型 格兰杰因果关系 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济]