局限转变、结构调整与中国增长前景  

Constraint Transformation,Structural Adjustment and Prospect of China's Economic Growth

作　　者：谢作诗[1,2] 邵慰[3] 

机构地区：[1]浙江财经学院经济与国际贸易学院 [2]辽宁大学 [3]浙江财经学院

出　　处：《经济与管理研究》2012年第7期5-12,共8页Research on Economics and Management

基　　金：2007年国家社科基金项目"软预算约束下宏观经济政策传导机制及政策效应研究"(07BJL014);2010年国家社会科学基金资助项目"提升中国装备制造业竞争力的对策研究"(10CJY033)

摘　　要：中美经济各自都失衡,但在特定条件下又具有互补性。世界经济过去二十年的高增长其实是依靠各自都结构失衡的中美经济在特定条件下相互补充从而实现的非常态高增长,金融危机则是这种非常态高增长的一个强制性回归。一旦超发货币遇到通胀压力、赤字财政不能继续推行时,中美各自的结构矛盾就会显化,世界经济总供求平衡就不能维持。国际收支失衡不过是深层制度失衡的外在表现,并不是失衡本身。未来中国经济将告别8%以上的高增长,回归到中高的增长速度。需求刺激并不能让世界经济走出危机重回高增长轨道,相反,还带来滞胀风险。China＇s and America＇s economy are not only imbalanced but also complementary to each other under certain circumstances. The high growth speed of world economy in the past two decades actually depends on the fact that structur- ally imbalaneed Sino - US economy is able to complement to each other, which is actually an unnatural type of fast growth Financial crisis is essentially a compulsory return from that unnatural state. Once excessively issued money encounters the inflation pressure and deficit fiscal policy is unable to be sustained, the structural problems will appear and world aggregate supply and demand balance will be broken. The international imbalance is only the manifestation of institutional imbal- ance, not imbalance itself. China is to say farewell to the 8% - fast - growth era in the future and return to the medium fast growth speed. Demand stimulus is not only unable to bring the world the contrary,is highly likely to evoke the risk of stagflation of the crisis back to the fast growth track, but, on

关 键 词：需求管理 结构调整 滞胀 政治经济制度 

分 类 号：F120.4[经济管理—世界经济]