我国国债负担、宏观税负与经济增长的计量分析  

Econometric Analysis of China's Debt Burden,Macro Tax Burden and Economic Growth

作　　者：张丽敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]菏泽学院经济系,山东菏泽274015

出　　处：《江西农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2012年第2期96-103,共8页Journal of Jianxi Agricultural University :Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：山东省统计局课题(KT11050)

摘　　要：应用新古典经济增长研究思路,通过使用VAR模型和脉冲响应函数对我国1981—2010年间的国债负担、宏观税负与经济增长的动态关系进行研究。结果表明:我国国债负担与经济增长的变动存在长期稳定的协同互动关系,且长期国债负担对经济增长产生负向冲击;我国宏观税负与经济增长存在双向因果关系,在短期宏观税负对经济增长产生较大影响,尤其是在1994年税负改革后,但是我国宏观税负从长期来看对经济增长的影响较小。This paper applies neo-classical economic growth ideas to study the dynamic relationship be- tween the debt burden and the macro tax burden and economic growth between 1981 and 2010 of China by using the VAR model and impulse response function. The results show that there exists a long-term co-integration between debt burden and the national economic growth, and that debt burden, as the Granger reason for economic growth, has a negative impact on economic growth. A two-way causal relationship is found between macro tax burden and economic growth. The macro tax burden, which impacts the economic growth heavily in the short-term, has little impact in the long run. Finally, some suggestions are proposed based on the result.

关 键 词：国债负担 宏观税负 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F20[经济管理—国民经济]