严重创伤结局预测模型的应用效果分析  

THE APPLICATION EFFECT OF THE PROGNOSIS MODEL OF SEVERE TRAUMA OUTCOME

作　　者：陈发球[1] 陈锡林[2] 

机构地区：[1]广东省江门市中心医院急诊科,529070 [2]中山大学附属第一医院普通外科

出　　处：《中国煤炭工业医学杂志》2012年第7期991-993,共3页Chinese Journal of Coal Industry Medicine

摘　　要：目的分析比较北美严重创伤结局研究ASCOT模型、国内华西创伤数据库ASCOT模型和笔者计算出的MASCOT模型三种严重创伤结局预测模型的预测效果。方法应用AIS-2005版评分标准,建立本地区创伤数据库,对三种创伤结局预测模型的应用效能进行检验和比较。结果 MASCOT模型的准确性为94.23%,敏感性为41.78%,特异性为98.71%,死亡误判率为58.82%,生存误判率为1.29%,区别度为0.72;北美ASCOT模型的准确性为93.68%,敏感性为20.00%,特异性为99.90%,死亡误判率为80.00%,生存误判率为0.10%,区别度为0.64;华西ASCOT模型的准确性为80.04%,敏感性为62.35%,特异性为81.53%,死亡误判率为37.65%,生存误判率为18.47%,区别度为0.67。结论不同的创伤结局预测模型均具有一定的准确性,SIRS评分参与回归分析的MASCOT可能更为合理。Objective To analysis the prediction effect of ASCOT of MTOS,ASCOT of Yang,and MASCOT of Chen on severe trauma outcome.Methods The application effect of the prognosis models by establishing a trauma database scoring with the AIS-2005 standards was analyzed.Results For MASCOT modle,the accuracy was 94.23%,sensitivity was 41.78%,specificity was 98.71%,misclassification of death was 58.82%,misclassification of survival was 1.29%,and the disparity was 0.72.For MTOS modle,they were 93.68%,20.00%,99.90%,80.00%,0.10% and 0.64 respectively.But for Yang modle,they were 80.04%,62.35%,81.53%,37.65%,18.47%,0.67 respectively.Conclusions Different trauma outcome prediction model has certain accuracy.The score of SIRS in regression analysis of MASCOT may be more reasonable.

关 键 词：严重创伤结局 预测模型 

分 类 号：R195.1[医药卫生—卫生统计学]