人民币升值对我国国内物价的影响分析  

The influence of RMB appreciation on Chinese price level

作　　者：段玉婉[1] 陈锡康[1] 杨翠红[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,管理决策与信息系统重点实验室,北京100190

出　　处：《管理科学学报》2012年第7期1-10,共10页Journal of Management Sciences in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金国际合作重大资助项目(70810107020);国家自然科学基金资助项目(70871108);国家杰出青年科学基金资助项目(71125005)

摘　　要：根据经济学原理,人民币升值将使得人民币表示的进口品价格降低,从而降低生产成本,缓解国内的通货膨胀水平.但近期随着人民币汇率的不断升高,我国的通胀水平仍居高不下.为测算人民币升值是否能有效缓解我国的通胀压力,本文根据人民币升值对我国物价的影响机制,并考虑到进口品对国内品的替代作用和部门间的价格传递效应,利用计量经济模型和反映加工贸易的非竞争型投入产出模型相结合的方法,分情景分析了人民币升值对中国PPI、CPI和各部门生产者价格的影响.结果表明人民币升值对缓解我国通胀水平作用有限.RMB appreciation will cause the decrease in import prices, which can further reduce the production cost and ease the inflationary pressure of China. However, along with the recent RMB appreciation, the price in China raised quickly. Consequently, this paper aims to figure out whether the RMB appreciation can effi- ciently ease the inflation in China. First, the paper analyzes the influencing mechanism of RMB appreciation on domestic price. Then, it also takes into consideration the substitution of imports for domestic products and the pass-through of price among different sectors. By combining non-competitive input-output model capturing processing trade with the econometric model, the paper finally analyzes the impact of RMB appreciation on PPI, CPI and the produce price of each sector. The results show that RMB appreciation has limited effect on easin~ China＇ s domestic inflationarv nressure.

关 键 词：人民币升值 进口需求函数 投入产出模型 CPI PPI 

分 类 号：F820.5[经济管理—财政学]