基于系统动力学的CCS产业化模型及稳态研究  

The research on the model and stability of CCS based on the system dynamics

作　　者：梁大鹏[1] 徐春林[1] 马东海[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学经济与管理学院,哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《管理科学学报》2012年第7期36-49,共14页Journal of Management Sciences in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70941031;71073040);教育部人文社会科学基金资助项目(09YJC790061);黑龙江省自然科学基金资助项目(QC08C72);哈尔滨工业大学创新基金资助项目(HIT.NSRIF.2008.59)

摘　　要：在CO2价值链分析的基础上,设计了CCS(碳捕捉与封存技术)的商业化推广系统,并针对系统中发电企业、CCS运营商和CO2存储地的经济特性构建了该系统的总体均衡模型(GEM).依据GEM模型,本文进一步构建了CCS产业化复杂系统的动力学因果图及流图,并运用Vensim软件对该流图进行了系统仿真及敏感性分析.结果证明:按照GEM模型确定的商业规则运行的CCS推广系统存在均衡状态;而电力企业的采集系数和政府补助则成为保持该均衡状态的稳定性的敏感性因素.On the basis of analyzing the carbon dioxide value chain, this paper designs a CCS commercial op- eration system. The system considers the power plant as the capture part and designs an independent transport and storage part to achieve the value exchange of carbon dioxide. According to the general equilibrium model （ GEM）, there would be positive or negative feedback loops among these members. With the method of system dynamics, this paper constructs the flow graph of CCS the possibility that there would be a stable state for the commercial operation system and the simulation proves system. Some key factors would be found according the dynamic analysis of the system. Simulation results show that, ratio of capture and government subsidy are sen- sitive factors for CCS industrial system, which means deployment of CCS depends not only on policy support but also on enterprise participation.

关 键 词：CCS 系统动力学 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：F425[经济管理—产业经济]