1961-2008年塔城地区气候变化特征  

Climatic Change Characteristics in Tacheng Region from 1961 to 2008

作　　者：黄海云 张山清[2] 沙曼曼 冯志敏 

机构地区：[1]新疆气象信息中心,乌鲁木齐830000 [2]新疆乌鲁木齐市气象局,乌鲁木齐830001 [3]新疆气候中心,乌鲁木齐830001

出　　处：《新疆农业大学学报》2012年第3期242-248,共7页Journal of Xinjiang Agricultural University

基　　金：新疆气象科研项目(200708)

摘　　要：根据新疆塔城地区7个气象台站1961-2008年的气候资料,采用气候倾向率、累积距平、t检验和Mor-let小波等方法,对塔城地区1961-2008年年平均气温、日照时数、降水量、平均风速、年潜在蒸散量以及湿润指数的变化特征进行了分析。结果表明,1961-2008年塔城地区年平均气温、降水量呈升高(增多)趋势,日照时数、年平均风速和潜在蒸散量呈减少(减小)趋势,湿润指数呈增大趋势;突变检测表明,塔城地区1961-2008年年平均气温在1988年开始发生了突变性升高;降水量在1986年开始发生了突变性增多;日照时数、平均风速也分别在1981年、1985年发生了突变性减小,受气温、降水、日照和风速的综合影响,潜在蒸散量也于1985年发生了极显著的突变性减小,湿润指数在1986年发生了突变性增大。综合气温、降水和湿润指数的变化可以认定,塔城地区的气候在1986-1988年出现了"暖湿化"趋势;自然正交分解表明,塔城地区年平均气温、日照时数、降水量、平均风速、潜在蒸散量以及湿润指数的空间分布特征均是同向性,其中年平均气温、平均风速、湿润指数的空间分布特征的同向性强于日照时数、降水量和潜在蒸散量。各气候要素分别存在3～23a的不同时间尺度的周期性变化。The present study was designed to use tendency rate,accumulative anomaly, t test and morlet wavelet to analyze the change characteristics of annual mean temperature, hours of day sunshine, precipita- tion, mean wind speed, annual potential evapotranspiration and humidity index based on the climatic data of seven meteorological stations in Tacheng region,Xinjiang from 1961 to 2008. The main results were ob- tained as follows. The annual mean temperature,precipitation were increased, but the annual mean sun- shine hours and wind speed were decreased; The correlation analysis showed that there were significant positive correlations between potential evapotranspiration and the annual mean temperature, annual sun- shine hours and average wind speed, and there were significant negative correlations between potential e- vapotranspiration and annual rainfall. In the comprehensive influence of climatic factors, the potential evap- otranspiration was significantly decreased and humidity indexes from the surface ground were increased; The abrupt examination indicated that,the annual mean temperature,precipitation and surface ground hu- midity index had the discontinuitinuous ascension in 1988,1986 and 1986,the hours of sunshine,average wind speed and the annual potential evapotranspiration had discontinuity reducing in 1981,1985 and 1985 respectively. According to the change of the temperature, precipitation and humidity index, it may identify the sudden change of＂warm- wet＇occurred in Tacheng region in 1986- 1988; The natural orthoeonaldecomposition indicated that the spatial distribution characteristics of annual mean temperature, hours of daily sunshine, precipitation, mean wind speed, evapotranspiration and humidity index all were condirec- tional, among which condireetion of the spatial distribution of mean wind speed, mean humidity index were stronger than that of hours of daily sunshine, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration. The above differ- ent climatic elements had different periodic changes between 3-2

关 键 词：新疆塔城地区 气候变化 潜在蒸散量 湿润指数 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]