近30年中国玉米气候生产潜力时空变化特征  

Characteristics of spatial-temporal variation of maize climate productivity during last 30 years in China

作　　者：钟新科[1,2] 刘洛[3] 徐新良[1] 游松财[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049 [3]湖南农业大学资源环境学院,长沙410128 [4]中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2012年第15期94-101,I0002,I0003,共10页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：科技部科技基础性专项(2007FY120100)

摘　　要：气候变化背景下中国玉米气候生产潜力变化趋势及其空间差异值得关注。在1981年-2010年日气象数据、玉米生育期数据和土壤数据基础上,该文采用GIS技术和AEZ模型结合的方法,模拟了30a平均中国玉米生产潜力和中国玉米生产潜力变化趋势。研究得出:近30a中国春玉米气候生产潜力变化趋势为每5a变化-887～1689kg/hm2,空间差异明显,东北地区西部、黄淮海平原北部和黄土高原部分地区气候生产潜力呈降低趋势,黄淮海地区南部和南方绝大部分地区呈增加趋势。中国夏玉米气候生产潜力变化趋势为每5a变化-589～1768kg/hm2,除黄淮海平原北部呈降低趋势外,其他地区夏玉米气候生产潜力呈增加趋势。中国春玉米、夏玉米气候生产潜力呈下降趋势地区玉米光温生产潜力在近30a显著增加,气候干旱化是主要影响因素。该研究可为中国玉米生产宏观决策提供支持。Based on daily observation data, growth stage data of maize and soil data, the GIS technology and AEZ model were used to simulate the average maize climate productivity and its change trend in China from 1981 to 2010. The results showed that the change trend of spring maize climate productivity was between -887 to 1 689 kg/（hm2.5a）; The areas with decreasing trend were mainly distributed in the west part of the Northeast China, the north part of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain and Loess Plateau Regions. The change trend of summer maize climate productivity was between -589 to 1 768 kg/（hm2.5a）; Except for the north part of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, all other regions in China showed an increasing tendency. The photosynthesis and temperature productivity of spring maize and summer maize in the region where maize climate productivity had a decreasing tendency increased evidently from 1981 to 2010. Drying trend of climate was the main driving force of maize productivity fluctuations. The research can provide a reference for overall policy decision of maize production in China.

关 键 词：气候变化 干旱 粮食 玉米 气候生产潜力 空间特征 变化趋势 中国 

分 类 号：S162.3[农业科学—农业气象学]