长武县“耕地—果园”数量变动与经济发展关系分析  

Research on relationship between dynamical change of "arable land-fruit orchard" and economic development

作　　者：梅花[1] 王继军 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学资源环境学院,陕西杨凌712100 [2]中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《干旱地区农业研究》2012年第3期214-220,共7页Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas

基　　金：中国科学院重大项目"耕地保育与持续高效现代农业试点工程"(KSCX-YW-09-07);国家科技支撑课题(2006BAD09B10)

摘　　要：利用1985—2008时间、空间序列数据,采用趋势分析、协整分析和Granger因果分析和区位熵评价法分析长武县耕地、果园数量与经济发展之间的关系。研究时段内,可得到果业面积和经济发展的长期均衡模型和短期波动的误差修正模型;由于人均耕地面积为非稳定序列,Granger因果检验可探究耕地数量与经济发展关系,其结果显示长武县的经济发展并非以耕地为代价,经济发展对耕地面积影响不大。此外,从空间角度探讨长武县果业发展和耕地减少之间的关系,区位熵评价结果说明各乡镇果业发展与耕地面积减少的协调度不同,存在空间差异。We use the tenporal and spatial series data from 1985--2008 and apply trend analysis, co-integration, Granger causality analysis number and the economic model and the short-term and location entropy evaluation to development of Changwu County dynamical balance relationshipt of analyze the relationship between the arable land, the orchard Through the ADF test, we get the long-term equilibrium the available space of fruit industry and economic develop- ment. As the arable land per capita is in non-stable sequence, Granger causality test can explore the relationship between the arable land and the economic development. The results show that the county＇ s economic development is not at the ex- pense of arable land and the economic development has little effect on the cultivated area. The method of location entropy evaluation can be introduced to investigating the relationship between the development of fruit industry and the reduction of arable land in Changwu from the perspective of space~ The results of location entropy evaluation demonstrate that the coordination of development of fruits industry is different from that of the cultivated area while space diversity exists.

关 键 词：耕地面积变动 经济发展 协整分析 GRANGER因果检验 区位熵 长武县 

分 类 号：F301.21[经济管理—产业经济]