气候变化对陕西省冬小麦种植布局的影响分析  

Impact of climate change on planting distribution of winter wheat in Shaanxi Province

作　　者：郑小华[1] 屈振江[2] 鲁渊平[1] 杜莉丽[1] 康小玉[3] 

机构地区：[1]陕西省气象局,陕西西安710015 [2]陕西省经济作物气象服务台,陕西西安710015 [3]鞍山市气象局

出　　处：《干旱地区农业研究》2012年第3期244-251,256,共9页Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas

基　　金：陕西省气象局基金项目(2008K01-G19)

摘　　要：利用陕西近35 a（1971—2005年）的气候资料和同期的冬小麦产量资料,将对冬小麦生长有指标意义的越冬期≤0℃负积温、4~5月降水量、5月降水日数、冬前10~11月降水量等气候指标与产量进行统计分析,建立冬小麦适宜气候资源指标体系。运用模糊综合评判方法和GIS系统的空间分析功能,分别计算20世纪70年代、80年代、90年代以后三个时期冬小麦的气候可种植面积。计算结果表明：随着全球气候变暖,极端气候事件的增多,冬小麦最适宜种植区面积在缩小;但同时随着冬季气温的升高,冬小麦一般适宜种植区的面积在扩大,北移到定边、靖边、横山、子洲、米脂、佳县一线;不适宜区的面积也在缩小。The data of climate and winter wheat yield in Shaanxi Province in recent 35 years （1971--2005） were used to analyze the relationship between winter wheat yield and typical climatic factors such as temperature ≤0℃ during over-wintering stage, precipitation amount in April to May, precipitation days in May and precipitation amount in October to November so as to establish an index system of suitable climatic resources for winter wheat. And the suitalbe planting area of winter wheat in three periods of 1970s, 1980s and after 1990s was ealculated by using fuzzy multiple estimation and spatial analysis function of the GIS system. The results show that the most suitable planting area of winter wheat is decreasing due to global warming and the increase of extreme weather events. However, the general suitalbe planting area is increasing and the unsuitable area is decreasing.because of the increase of temperature in winter. The planting boundary of winter wheat in Shaanxi Province has been expanded northwards to the counties of Dingbian, Jingbian, Hengshan Zizhou, Mizhi and Jiaxian.

关 键 词：气候变化 冬小麦 种植布局 陕西省 

分 类 号：S162.5[农业科学—农业气象学]