会计估计的准确性、行业共识信息与个体投资者的决策  

The Accuracy of Accounting Estimates,Consensus Information and Individual Investors' Decisions

作　　者：张继勋[1] 张丽霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学商学院

出　　处：《南开管理评论》2012年第3期101-109,149,共10页Nankai Business Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70972087)资助

摘　　要：会计信息在投资者的投资决策过程中发挥着十分重要的作用,其质量直接影响着投资者的判断和决策。会计估计在提高会计信息相关性的同时,也为公司管理层提供了盈余管理的空间。本文实验检验了对会计估计的准确性进行事后披露这一机制是否有助于个体投资者做出正确的判断和决策,以及行业共识信息对这一机制发挥作用的影响。研究发现:(1)事后披露会计估计准确性的信息只有通过行业共识信息的辅助才能有效发挥作用,即只有在两者的共同作用下,个体投资者才能够正确识别会计估计准确的原因,也才能够进行正确的归因,并做出正确的判断和决策;(2)投资者对会计估计的准确性会产生不同的归因,投资者的归因进一步影响了其对管理层评价,而对管理层的评价影响了其对公司市盈率的评价,对公司市盈率的评价进一步影响了投资者对其投资可能性的判断。Accounting information plays a very important role in the process of investors＇ decision-making and its quality directly determines investors＇ judgments and decisions, in turn, accounting information is also very essential for the healthy operation of capital market. To ensure the quality of accounting information, especially the relevance of accounting information, the accounting principles and financial accounting standards allow the information preparers make reasonable estimates of uncertain items, however, accounting estimates also provide the latitude for managers＇ earning manage- ment. This paper investigates whether the ex post disclosure of the accuracy of accounting estimates can help individual investors make proper judgments and decisions by employing an experimental method. According to attribution theory, individuals are more likely attribute the positive outcome to external reasons when the positive outcome is from the persons other than themselves. The experiment results show that： （1） although individual investors can make differ- ent investment-related judgments between accurate and inaccurate accounting estimates, they can＇t identify the proper reasons for the accurate accounting estimates; （2） only aided with the industry con- sensus information, can this mechanism for the ex post disclosure of the accuracy of accounting estimates work as intended, namely only with the both effects, can individual investors correctly recog- nize the reasons for the accuracy of accounting estimates, attribute the accuracy of accounting estimates to accurate causes, and make proper judgments and decisions; （3） This paper also finds and uncov- ers the specific process for individual investors to make investment judgments and decisions. Specially, investors attribute the accuracy of accounting estimate to different reasons. Investors＇ attributions influence their appraisal of managements, their appraisal of manage- ments influence their P/E ratio judgments, and in turn, the P/E ratio judgme

关 键 词：会计估计 共识信息 个体投资者 投资决策 

分 类 号：F233[经济管理—会计学] F224[经济管理—国民经济]