中国就业增长与城镇化水平关系的实证研究  

Study on the Relationship between Employment Growth and the Level of Urbanization in China

作　　者：汪泓[1] 崔开昌[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海工程技术大学管理学院 [2]上海工程技术大学科研处

出　　处：《南京社会科学》2012年第8期28-32,48,共6页Nanjing Journal of Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"人口老龄化对储蓄;消费和社会保障的影响研究"(11BJY040)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：基于1981年-2009年的样本数据,应用ADF检验、协整检验、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应分析及方差分解,研究了我国就业增长与城镇化水平之间的关系,结果表明:我国就业增长与城镇化水平之间存在着均衡关系,就业增长和城镇化水平之间存在单项的因果关系,城镇化是就业增长的格兰杰原因,城镇化在一定时期内对就业增长具有强力的推动作用,城镇化水平对我国就业增长波动的贡献率比较大,但其贡献率逐渐下降。我国在实现社会就业比较充分的过程中,可以充分发挥城镇化对就业的促进作用。要推进以农业现代化为基础的城镇化、以新型工业化为驱动的城镇化、以服务业现代化为抓手的城镇化、以相关制度为保障的城镇化,促进就业增长。Based on the sample data of 1981-2009 years,applying ADF test,co-integration test,error correction model,the Granger causality test,impulse response analysis and variance decomposition,this paper studies the relationship between the employment growth and the level of urbanization.Results show： the existence of a balanced relationship between the level of urbanization and employment growth,the causal relationship between the individual＇s employment growth and the level of urbanization in China,urbanization is the Granger cause of employment growth and urbanization is a strong role in promoting employment growth,but the intensity is gradually weakened with the increase of the lag period,the urbanization level in the contribution rate of China＇s employment growth fluctuations is relatively large,but its contribution rate showed a gradual decline.Our country can play fully on the role of urbanization process to achieve full social employment.This paper proposes that we should promote the urbanization which based on agricultural modernization,driven by new industrialization,operated by service modernization and protected by related systems to promote employment growth.

关 键 词：城镇化 城镇化水平 就业增长 

分 类 号：C911[经济管理]