基于生命质量指数的病险水库除险加固效应评价方法  

Quantitative evaluation framework of reinforcement based on the LQI for dangerous dams

作　　者：胡江[1,2] 苏怀智[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]水资源高效利用与工程安全国家工程研究中心,江苏南京210098 [3]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水利学报》2012年第7期852-859,868,共9页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51179066;51139001);新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-10-0359);国家重点实验室专项经费资助项目(2009586912);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(2010B01414);江苏省第四期"333工程"培养资金资助项目(BRA2011179)

摘　　要：目前病险水库除险加固投入多依据标准和规范定性确定,缺乏定量的论证。生命质量指数(Life quality index,LQI)是一个复合的社会指数,能较好地结合工程当地的经济发展水平,从社会效应的角度来优化结构失效风险率和除险加固投入间的关系。将风险和LQI理论引入到病险水库除险加固决策优化过程中,基于已有溃坝资料提出了溃坝生命损失的快速估算公式,在当前规范的基础上,建立了病险水库除险加固效应的定量评价模型。以华东某均质病险土坝为例,分析了除险加固前后该坝的渗透失稳风险率,估算了溃坝生命损失;根据工程当地的社会、经济发展水平和LQI参数,计算出了LQI增量和最大社会愿意支付费用,定量分析了除险加固效应,验证了文中方法的有效性。At present, the reinforcement cost analysis for dangerous dams, which is qualitatively deter- mined according to the corresponding standards, is preliminary and provides a limited degree of quantitative guidance to decision-makers. The life quality index （LQI）, as a compound social indicator composing soci- etal wealth and longevity, can be used as a tool to harmonize reinforcement costs and safety levels. In this paper, the LQ1 is described as a criterion for optimizing dam failure risk. Based on measured data, an esti- mating formula of life loss eaused by dam failure flood was fitted. On the basis of the current standards, a quantitative evaluation model for decision making of reinforcement costs of dangerous dams was presented. As an application, a dangerous homogeneous earth darn located in east China was examined. The seepage failure probabilities before and after reinforcement of the discussed dam were calculated using the proposed simple formula. Life loss upon dam failure flood was estimated. Combined with the local economic and so- cial development level, the LQI parameters were obtained. Finally the societal willingness to pay （SWTP） and the benefit-cost ratio based on the LQI （i.e. dL/L） were obtained. The SWTP is larger than the budget of the reinforcement and the ratio dL/L is positive, which show that the reinforcement measure is reason- able. This results in a useful tool to determine optimal safety level of dams.

关 键 词：病险水库 除险加固决策 LQI 溃坝生命损失 风险管理 失效风险率 

分 类 号：TV698.2[水利工程—水利水电工程]