云南省碳排放与经济增长关系的情景分析和预测  

Scenario Analysis and Prediction of Relationship between Carbon Emission and Economic Growth in Yunnan Province

作　　者：郑季良[1] 陈墙[1] 

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学管理与经济学院,云南昆明650093

出　　处：《昆明理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2012年第3期73-77,共5页Journal of Kunming University of Science and Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：云南省院省校合作项目"云南省低碳经济发展路径和对策研究"(Sysx201004)

摘　　要：通过对近20年云南省碳排放与经济增长历经的关系变化及成因分析表明,二者之间的关系受能源结构和能源强度因素的影响很大。运用基于IPAT方程的碳排放量计算模型对GDP、能源强度、能源结构系数、碳排放量、碳排放强度等参数变量之间的关系分四种情景对2011-2020年云南省碳排放与经济增长的约束性关系进行了定量分析和预测,发现了存在的一些问题,解决的途径是应该合理调整和优化几个参数变量之间的关系。After analyzing the reason and cause between carbon emission and economic growth for past 20 years, it shows that the relationship is affected greatly from energy structure and energy intensity. The restrained relationship between carbon emission and economic growth for the years of 2011 -2020 is discussed and predic- ted with four scenarios based on the relationship among GDP, energy intensity, energy structure coefficient and carbon emission amount and carbon intensity, using carbon emission calculating formula based on IPAT equa-tion. Some problems are discovered. The way of solution is to regulate and optimize the relationship among a- bove variable parameters.

关 键 词：碳排放 IPAT方程 情景分析 低碳经济 

分 类 号：F061.3[经济管理—政治经济学]