突发事件应急救援动态调度优化:以KX井喷事故为例  

Dynamic Scheduling Optimization for Emergency Rescue:Taking KX Blowout Accident as an Example

作　　者：任世科[1] 袁治平[1] 徐渝[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学管理学院,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2012年第3期1-7,共7页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70971105)

摘　　要：突发事件应急救援具有高度的不确定性和动态性。本文以KX井喷事故为例,研究突发事件应急救援的动态调度优化问题。作者首先给出KX井喷事故的背景资料,在此基础上提炼本文所研究的问题,即如何基于突发事件救援过程中的实际变化,对原定计划进行最优的动态调整。随后,构建突发事件应急救援的动态调度优化模型,针对其NP-hard属性设计专门的禁忌搜索启发式算法。最后,对KX井喷事故应急救援的动态调度问题进行求解,并结合现实情况对求解结果进行讨论分析,得到如下结论:早期发生的计划调整通常会对应急救援产生较大的影响,而后期发生的计划调整的影响则相对较小。本文的研究可为突发事件应急救援的实时指挥提供定量化决策支持。Emergency rescue has highly uncertain and dynamic characteristics. Taking K$~ blowout accident as an example, this paper investigates the dynamic scheduling optimization problem for emergency rescue. At first, the authors present the background of KX blowout accident and extract the studied problem, i.e. how to adjust the original schedule of emergency rescue dynamically based on the practical variations during its implementation. Then, the dynamic scheduling optimization model for emergency rescue is constructed ~nd due to its NP-hard- ness, a special tabu search heuristic algorithm is developed. Ultimately, the dynamic scheduling problem for the emergency rescue of KX blowout accident is solved and in the light of practical situations, the computation result is discussed. The conclusion of the study is as follows： The early adjustments on the schedule can exert a great influence on the emergency rescue while the impact of the late adjustments is relatively low. The research in this paper can provide quantitative decision supports for the real time coordination of emergency rescue.

关 键 词：应急管理 动态调度 优化模型 禁忌搜索 KX井喷事故 

分 类 号：C935[经济管理—管理学] F224.33