飞行员升级周期分析  

Promotion Cycle Analysis of Pilots

作　　者：高敏刚[1] 池宏[1] 邵雪焱[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2012年第3期99-104,共6页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所青年基金资助项目(O900741J01)

摘　　要：证明当中国民航飞行员每年的飞行经历增加量分布一定时,其升级过程是一个Markov过程,建立四维转移矩阵模型并将其转化为二维转移矩阵。在此基础上对飞行员升级周期进行分析,给出升级周期估算方法。本文最后通过实例分析验证了方法的有效性。为中国民航飞行员升级周期分析提供了理论依据,充实了人力资源定量分析方法的研究。When the distribution of Chinese civil aviation pilots＇ flight experiences increment is constant every year, it is proved that the promotion process of pilots is a Markov process. A four-dimensional transfer matrix is built and transformed into a two-dimensional transfer matrix. The promotion cycle of pilots is analyzed and its es- timation method is given. An example is investigated to verify the validity of the method. The work in this paper provides the theoretical basis for the promotion cycle estimation of Chinese civil aviation pilots. The research method and conclusions enrich human resource quantitative analysis theory.

关 键 词：管理科学与工程 升级周期分析 MARKOV过程 转移矩阵 民航飞行员 飞行经历 

分 类 号：F562.3[经济管理—产业经济] F224