台风灾害应急物资需求预测模型  

Emergency material demand forecast model for typhoon disaster response

作　　者：张斌[1,2] 陈建国[1] 吴金生 文仁强[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学工程物理系,公共安全研究院,北京100084 [2]浙江省气象科学研究所,杭州310017

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第7期891-895,共5页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家公益性行业专项(GYHY201106035);浙江省电力公司科学技术项目(ZDK081-2012)

摘　　要：为了快速科学地了解台风灾害发生后灾区所需救灾物资的类型、数量及其在时序上和空间上的需求情况,通过对中国登陆台风历史资料的统计,分析成灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体、区域应急能力等,提出了基于精细网格的台风灾损空间模型及应急物资需求定性预测模型。根据此模型能在灾害过程中快速预测灾区受灾情况,预测灾区救援物资的定性需求。将该模型运用于台风的实例中,验证了模型科学有效。The type and amount of relief supplies needed in the disaster area must be quickly assessed after a typhoon. The histories of various typhoons landed in China were analyzed to identify disaster factors, hazard-affected regions and regional emergency response capacity. An emergency material demand forecast model for typhoon response was then developed based on fine grid geographical data. This model rapidly predicts the qualitative relief supply needs for the disaster response. The model is used with a typhoon example to forecast the demands, which verifies the model effectiveness.

关 键 词：应急物资需求预测模型 空间量化模型 应急 灾害 GIS 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学]