台湾人口老龄化的区域差异研究——基于各县市面板数据的实证分析  

A Study on Regional Differences in Population Aging in Taiwan——Based on the Empirical Analysis of County Level Panel Data

作　　者：孙蕾[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学金融与统计学院,上海200241

出　　处：《台湾研究集刊》2012年第4期60-68,共9页Taiwan Research Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目"两岸人口老龄化的区域差异;成因比较研究"(12CRK003);上海市哲学社会科学规划项目"人口老龄化的区域差异研究"(2011EJB001)

摘　　要：本文根据台湾"主计处"23个县市1998—2008年的面板数据进行实证分析,用Haus-man Test检验固定效果和随机效果,并用Arellano-Bond动态面板数据估计方法解决模型的自相关问题。研究发现全台湾各县市人口老龄化程度有显著差异,深受产业发展程度、出生及死亡情况、人口迁移等因素的影响。主要研究结论表明:粗出生率、粗死亡率和净迁移率都对人口老龄化有显著的负向影响;而农业就业者比例对人口老龄化的影响为正。为缓和老龄化问题,必须在经济、文化、卫生与社会福利各层面通力合作,追求经济效率与社会公平。This paper collects the 1998-2008 county level panel data from DGBAS under the Executive Yuan to do the empirical analysis. We conduct the Hausman specification test to discriminate between fixed effects and random effects, and use Arellano-Bond difference GMM estimator to solve the autocorrelation problem. We find the significant regional differences in Taiwan＇s population aging process, which are affected by the level of industrial development, crude birth rate, crude death rate, and net migration rate. The main conclusions are drawn as follows：Crude birth rate, crude death rate and net migration rate have significantly negative effects on population aging;while the proportion employed in agriculture has a positive effect on it. To ease the aging problem, the government should co-operate in various aspects of economy, culture, health care and social wel- fare and pursue economic efficiency and social equity.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 区域差异 Arellano—Bond动态面板数据模型 

分 类 号：C913.6[经济管理]