产业演进阶段的识别方法——以中国电子及通讯设备制造业为例  

Recognition of Industry Evolution Stage——Taking the Equipment Manufacturing Industry As an Example

作　　者：孙晓华[1] 周旭[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学经济学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《中国科技论坛》2012年第8期82-87,共6页Forum on Science and Technology in China

基　　金：国家社科基金资助项目"技术创新与产业演化:理论及实证"(10FJL011);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助"城市化与产业结构调整的互动机理:基于演化经济学的新视角"(DUT10RW312)

摘　　要：产业演进是单一产业所经历的由成长到衰退的演变过程,产业演进阶段的识别是科学制定产业政策的基础,也是产业经济学研究的重要问题之一。本文分别对产业组织视角下的二维识别法和产业规模视角下的产出增长率法与生长曲线法进行阐述,并以中国电子及通讯设备制造业1987—2008年的统计数据为例展开了实证检验,结果发现三种识别方法能够得到一致的结论,中国电子及通讯设备制造业目前处于产业成长期。因此,从多个维度定位产业演进阶段,不仅可以保证结论的稳健型,而且能够体现产业演进的内在演化逻辑。Industry evolution means the process that a single industry experiences from its growth to recession. The stage identification of industry evolution is not only the basis for formulating a scientific industrial policy, but also one of the important issues of industry economics researches, This article describes the two-dimensional identification method from the perspective of industry organization, the output rate of growth method and the growth curve method from the perspective of industrial scale respectively. The paper launches an empirical test based on the statistical data of the manufacturing industry of electronic and communication equipment in China, and gets the conclusion that China＇s e- lectranic and communication equipment manufacturing industry is currently growing. Therefore, positioning the evolution stage from multiple dimensions can not only guarantee the stability of conclusion, but also reflect the internal logic of industry evolution.

关 键 词：产业演进 二维识别法 产出增长率法 生长曲线法 

分 类 号：F203[经济管理—国民经济]