计及多因素的电网冰灾风险评估模型研究  

Research on ice disaster risk evaluation model of power system considering multi-factors

作　　者：张勇军[1] 许亮[2] 吴成文[1] 

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学电力学院,广东省绿色能源技术重点实验室,广东广州510640 [2]广东电网公司电网规划研究中心,广东广州510075

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2012年第15期12-17,共6页Power System Protection and Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51147006)~~

摘　　要：为综合评价电网遭受的冰灾风险,提出了一种计及多因素的电网冰灾风险评估模型。首先对冰灾气候建模,采用皮尔森Ⅲ分布描述年极值冰厚概率分布,并给出电网设计冰厚与年极值冰厚的关系;接着分析了覆冰厚度、融冰机配置和资源保障率等因素对元件停运模型的影响,并通过模糊推理系统建立线路的停运模型。在此基础上建立电网的冰灾风险评估模型,对算例的仿真结果表明,该方法可以准确、合理地考虑多种因素对电网冰灾风险的影响,并指出采用融冰机等措施能够有效地减小电网的运行风险,从而为电力部门的运行和管理提供有益的参考和意见。For comprehensively evaluating the ice disaster risk of power system, the analytic method with the inclusion of the effect of multi-factors is proposed. The climate of ice disaster is modeled at first. Pearson-III distribution is adopted to describe the probability distribution of year＇s ice extreme value. The relationship between the grid＇s designed ice thickness and the year＇s ice extreme value is presented. Then the elements＇ influences on the line ouiage model are studied, including ice thickness, the use of de-icing machine and the rate of resource guarantee. The line outage model is created by using fuzzy inference system. On that basis, the ice disaster risk evaluation model of power system is created. The simulation results show that the proposed model can comprehensively and reasonably assess the ice disaster risk including multi-factors. It is concluded that the use of de-icing machine and other measures can effectively reduce the risk. So it can provide beneficial reference and advice for power department.

关 键 词：冰灾 风险评估 皮尔森III分布 模糊推理 融冰机 资源保障率 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]