风电场出力预报预评估研究  

Research on pre-evaluation of wind power prediction

作　　者：袁铁江[1] 袁建党 晁勤[1] 郭立 

机构地区：[1]新疆大学电气工程学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830047 [2]乌鲁木齐电业局,新疆乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2012年第15期18-23,共6页Power System Protection and Control

基　　金：新疆青年自然科学基金(2009211B04);国家自然科学基金项目(51067009;51167018);新疆自然科学基金项目(2010211A10);新疆教育厅重点项目(XJEDU2009I04)~~

摘　　要：风电场出力预报预评估可以提高风电场并网系统调度决策质量,对于推动风力发电量增长具有重要理论和实践意义。提出从预报误差对风电场并网电力系统的影响角度,或者从风电场并网系统能够接纳或忍受的风电场出力预报偏差的角度,动态地对出力预报结果进行分析和考察,提出了风电场出力预报的预评估概念、确定预评估标准的一般原则及其判据。在此基础上,具体针对风电并网系统经济调度中,对风电场出力预报在时间尺度和精度尺度方面的要求,提出风电场短期出力预报的预评估标准并建立了对应的判据模型。基于IEEE-30测试系统和'风电有限全额并网调度'策略,对风电场短期出力预报预评估相关判据进行了仿真研究,结果表明提出的风电场出力预报预评估理念,对于促进风电场出力预报系统的科学评估及其预报结果的采信、提高风电场并网系统经济调度决策质量等方面,具有一定的理论和应用价值。Wind farm prediction could improve the dispatch quality of integrating wind power into power system, which is significant for promoting the development of wind power capacity both theoretically and practically. From the angle of the impact of forecast error on power system or the acceptable forecast error of wind power system, this paper analyzes the prediction results of wind farms power, proposes the pre-evaluation concept of forecasting electrical outputs from wind farms, and provides the criterion and principle of pre-evaluation. Based on this, in order to meet the requirements of wind farm prediction for the time scale and precision scale in economical dispatch of wind power system, the pre-evaluation standard of wind farm short-term forecast is proposed and the criterion model of pre-evaluation is established. Taking an IEEE 30 bus six-generator system as a simulation example, based on the strategy of maximum active power output of wind farm, the pre-evaluation criterion of wind power short-term forecast is simulated, and the results show that the proposed pre-evaluation concept can promote scientific evaluation of wind farm active power output and acquisition of forecast results, as well as improve economical dispatch level in integrating wind generators into power system.

关 键 词：风力发电 出力预报 预评估 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]