GM(1,1)灰色模型在云南省伤寒、副伤寒发病率预测中的应用  

Application of grey model(1,1) in predicting incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers in Yunnan

作　　者：刘志涛[1] 李琼芬[1] 王荣华[1] 刘晓强[1] 郝林会[1] 余建兴[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南省疾病预防控制中心,云南昆明650022

出　　处：《疾病监测》2012年第6期468-470,共3页Disease Surveillance

摘　　要：目的预测云南省未来几年伤寒、副伤寒发病趋势,为制定针对性的防治管理措施提供依据。方法根据云南省2001-2010年的伤寒、副伤寒发病率,应用灰色系统理论,建立伤寒、副伤寒发病率预测模型,进行预测研究。结果求得云南省伤寒、副伤寒发病率(1/10万)的灰色预测模型为:X(k+1)=-245.5667e-0.1067k+270.2939。拟合检验显示本模型拟合精度好(C=0.342<0.35,P=1),能够较好地预测伤寒、副伤寒发病率的趋势。结论预测表明2011-2014年云南省伤寒、副伤寒年发病率将继续呈下降趋势,应继续加强健康教育、治疗管理等综合性防治措施控制伤寒、副伤寒的发病。Objective To predict the incidence trend of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers in Yunnan province, and provide reference for the government in policy making. Methods According to the incidence data of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers in Yunnan from 2001 to 2010, the predicting model for typhoid and paratyphoid fevers incidence was established by using grey system theory to carry out predicting research. Results The grey model was X（ k ＋ 1 ） = - 245. 5667e -0.1067k ＋ 270. 2939. The goodness-of-fit test indicated that the precision （ degree 1 ） was qualified （ C = 0. 342 〈 0. 35, P = 1 ） and the grey model was capable in predicting the incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers. Conclusion The predicting results indicates that the incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers will continue to decrease in Yunnan from 2011 to 2014, but it is still necessary to strengthen the comprehensive prevention and control of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers, including health education and treatment management.

关 键 词：伤寒/副伤寒 预测 灰色模型 

分 类 号：R516.3[医药卫生—内科学]