超标准洪水条件下土石坝安全性应急判别分析  

Discriminant analysis for earth-rock dams' stability under the condition of exceeding standard flood

作　　者：李云[1,2] 王晓刚[1] 祝龙[1] 宣国祥[1,2] 刘火箭[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210029 [2]水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水科学进展》2012年第4期516-522,共7页Advances in Water Science

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目(201001033);科技部国际科技合作项目(S2012ZR0108)~~

摘　　要：当前极端气候频发,溃坝事件时有发生,提出一种超标准洪水条件下快速判别土石坝安全性的方法对于提升中国防洪决策水平、提高抗洪抢险能力具有重要的意义。然而,由于坝体结构复杂,不确定因素众多,超标准条件下快速判断土石坝安全性具有非常大的难度。借鉴堰塞湖天然坝安全性判别的研究方法,将判别分析法应用于超标准洪水条件下土石坝的安全性快速判别分析,结果证明,该套思路是可行的。从各坝体安全性判别分析方法的预测结果来看,判别分析法和IDB指标判别方法具有较高的判别正确率,两种判别方法正确率均达到90.0%,优于其它简单指标判别方法。Climate extremes occur frequently and dam breach occasionally happens at present. It＇s very significant to present a fast and efficient discriminant method for earth-rock dam＇s stability under conditions of exceeding standard flood. However, this task is difficult because of the complex structure of dams and too many uncertain factors. In this paper by reference to the analysis methods for nature dam＇s safety, the discriminant analysis method was applied for earth-rock dam and the results showed it＇s feasible. The diseriminant analysis and Casagli and Ermini＇s discriminant index IDBare better than the other methods. Both of them have high discriminant accuracy which reach 90 percent based on the samples in this paper.

关 键 词：堰塞湖天然坝 土石坝 判别分析 溃坝 超标准洪水 

分 类 号：TV641[水利工程—水利水电工程]